BCG: Fleet service providers face 'unprecedented' change
The report warns that many providers are failing to adapt fast enough to a market in fundamental transition.
Road fleet service companies risk being left behind as electrification, AI, and the concentration of purchasing power reshape the economics of the industry, according to new research from Boston Consulting Group.
The report, based on a survey of more than 500 fleet executives, warns that many providers, including fuel retailers, fuel card companies, energy suppliers, and EV charging players, are failing to adapt fast enough to a market in fundamental transition.
"Fleet service providers are risk-averse, too focused on fuel, and do not innovate enough," one UK fleet executive told BCG's researchers. "They should focus on customer-centric offerings." The finding reflects a broader pattern: 55% of fleet customers said their current suppliers fall short of their needs, a figure that climbs to roughly 70% among mega fleets operating 500 vehicles or more.
BCG identifies four macro trends reshaping the sector. Data and AI, which are embedded across telematics, payments, and logistics platforms used by more than 60% of fleets, ranked highest, cited by 63% of operators as among the top two forces of the next decade. Vehicle electrification came second, with 52% of respondents ranking it similarly. The concentration of purchasing power in large national and regional operators, and the gradual emergence of autonomous vehicles, round out the quartet.
On the financial side, the picture is mixed. The total fleet services value pool is projected to expand by up to 19% by 2035, but the composition of that value is changing sharply. Fuel could lose up to 30% of its associated value in some markets. Meanwhile, EV-related spending may account for as much as 45% of the total value pool in certain geographies by the same date, with service models around charging expected to carry margins 10–20% higher per vehicle than traditional ICE services.
The consultancy is clear that no single playbook will work across all markets, pointing to different regional trajectories for EV adoption, fleet consolidation, and outsourcing. But the overall direction of travel, it argues, is unambiguous: providers that remain anchored to fuel and traditional service models face structural decline, while those that move toward integrated, data-driven, and electrification-ready offerings are best positioned to capture the value that remains.
The full BCG report is available here.