Renewable fuels could meet over two-thirds of road transport demand
Electrification alone will not be enough to de-fossilise Europe's roads. The study, "From raw material to fossil-free mobility," pushes back against a public debate it says remains fixated on used cooking oil and HVO, arguing the real feedstock base is broader.
A new study by Germany's Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the German Biomass Research Centre (DBFZ) and FREYBERGER engineering, commissioned by BMW AG, argues that advanced renewable fuels can cover a far larger share of Europe's road transport demand than commonly assumed, without relying on imports in the long run.
The study, "From raw material to fossil-free mobility," finds that Carbon Neutral Fuels (CNF) produced from advanced biogenic feedstocks could meet 38-55% of total EU road fuel demand by 2030, rising to 44-67% by 2035 and as much as 67-107% by 2040 under a high-mobilisation scenario. In absolute terms, the raw materials bioenergy potential ranges from 280-361 Mtoe in 2030 to 285-380 Mtoe by 2040, against a total road fleet fuel demand falling from 238-247 Mtoe to 95-128 Mtoe over the same period as electrification progresses.
Feedstock diversity beyond HVO
"The diversity is considerably broader than is often reflected in public discourse," the report notes, pointing out that used cooking oil – the feedstock most associated with HVO in public debate – accounts for just 1% of the available raw material spectrum. Secondary wood and forestry residues (15.7%) and agricultural residues (15.7%) are the largest single categories in the 2030 mid-scenario mix, followed by manure (14.7%) and non-food crops (12.5%), with straw, municipal waste, stemwood, agroforestry and cover/intermediate crops making up the remainder.
Deductions and competing demand
The analysis explicitly nets out competing uses. Other industrial sectors and other transport modes are projected to draw down 149 Mtoe of bioenergy potential in 2030, rising to 188 Mtoe in 2035 and 228 Mtoe in 2040 — a deduction that pushes the "effective" share of available potential down from 61% to as low as 31% in the high-scenario by 2040, and from 49% to 21% in the mid-scenario.
Two conversion pathways
The study models fuel output through three main routes: HVO/HEFA for oil-based feedstocks, methanol-to-gasoline (MtG) for naphtha-rich output, and methanol-to-X (MtX) for middle distillates, drawing on operating data from KIT's bioliq® pilot plant. A Max-Middle-Distillate scenario yields 43-73 Mtoe (mid) and 113-117 Mtoe (high) of fuel over 2030-2040, while a More-Naphtha scenario balances output more evenly between petrol and diesel, reaching 64-89 Mtoe (mid) and 133-136 Mtoe (high). Both pathways increasingly rely on Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquid (PBtL) variants using additional hydrogen — rising from around 5% to roughly 50% of feedstock allocation — pushing hydrogen demand as high as 38.7-41.4 Mtoe by 2040 in the high-scenario.
Fleet demand and substitution rates
Pairing these fuel potentials against S&P Global's Max-Electron and More-Molecule fleet scenarios, the study calculates that by 2040 the DK-High (diesel) scenario could meet 116% of diesel demand and the OK-High (gasoline) scenario 88% of gasoline demand, for a combined 107% coverage of total fleet fuel needs. Even in the more conservative mid-scenario, 68-69% of diesel demand and 66-76% of gasoline demand could be met by 2040.
"The study clearly finds that renewable fuels (CNF) represent a viable, scalable pillar for road transport without fossil CO2 in the EU," the authors conclude, while cautioning that moderate imports will still be needed short-term to reach 100% substitution, and that reliable political frameworks and coordinated value-chain ramp-up remain prerequisites for realizing the potential.
Read the full report here.
