IEA: EV market share on course to exceed 40% by 2030

Despite significant uncertainties, electric cars’ market share is on course to exceed 40% by 2030 as they become increasingly affordable in more markets, new IEA report shows.

Following another year of robust growth, global sales of electric cars are on track to surpass 20 million in 2025, accounting for over a quarter of cars sold worldwide, according to the new edition of the IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook.

The report shows that despite recent economic headwinds that have put pressure on the auto sector, global sales of electric cars have continued to break records as electric models become increasingly affordable. Sales exceeded 17 million globally in 2024, putting EVs’ share of the global car market above 20% for the first time, as forecasted by the IEA previously. And in the first three months of 2025, electric car sales were up 35% year-on-year. All major markets, and many others, saw new records for first-quarter sales.

China maintains its position as the EV market leader, with electric cars accounting for almost half of all car sales in 2024. The number of electric cars sold in China last year (more than 11 million) is equivalent to the total sold worldwide in 2022. Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America have also become new centres of growth, with total electric car sales across these regions surging by more than 60% in 2024.

In the United States, electric car sales grew by about 10% year-on-year, reaching more than one in ten cars sold. Europe saw sales stagnate as subsidy schemes and other supportive policies waned, though the market share of electric cars remained around 20%.

“This year, we expect more than one in four cars sold worldwide to be electric, with growth accelerating in many emerging economies. By the end of this decade, it is set to be more than two in five cars as EVs become increasingly affordable,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Uncertainties over global economic growth and the evolution of trade and industrial policies could affect the outlook. But sales of EVs are being supported by their increasing affordability, the report finds.

On a global level, the average price of a battery electric car fell in 2024 amid growing competition and declining battery costs. In China, two-thirds of all electric cars sold last year were priced lower than their conventional equivalents, even without purchase incentives. However, the purchase price gap with conventional cars persisted in many other markets. The average battery electric car price in Germany, for example, remained 20% higher than that of its conventional counterpart. In the United States, battery electric cars were still 30% more expensive.

EVs remain consistently cheaper to operate across many markets, based on current energy market prices. Even if oil prices were to fall as low as $40 per barrel, running an electric car in Europe via home charging would still cost about half as much as running a conventional car at today’s residential electricity prices.

According to the report, almost one-fifth of electric car sales worldwide are of imported vehicles. China, which accounts for more than 70% of global production, shipped nearly 1.25 million electric cars to other countries in 2024.