UAE to exit OPEC, reshaping global oil dynamics
The move ends nearly 60 years of membership and gives Abu Dhabi greater flexibility over oil output.
The United Arab Emirates is set to leave the OPEC and OPEC+ groups next month, ending almost six decades of participation in the oil‑producing alliance and marking a significant shift in global energy governance.
The decision follows recent investments by the UAE aimed at expanding its oil production capacity, with officials saying the move will allow the country to better respond to long‑term global energy demand. By exiting the cartel, the UAE will no longer be bound by production quotas, giving it greater autonomy over output levels.
Analysts see the departure as a major setback for OPEC, which has long played a central role in managing oil supply and influencing global prices. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, described the exit as “the beginning of the end” for the alliance, noting that OPEC would lose around 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members.
Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency, told the BBC that the move represents “a major blow to the future effectiveness” of OPEC. He added that the UAE is likely to pursue an aggressive sales strategy, potentially undermining efforts by remaining members to keep prices elevated.
The exit is also seen as politically significant, aligning with long‑standing criticism of OPEC from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly accused the group of inflating oil prices. The move may open the door to closer energy ties between the UAE and the United States.
The decision comes amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty following the war involving Iran, which Atkinson said “has upended everything,” accelerating shifts in global energy strategy and alliances.
