BP sees demand for natural gas rising fastest; LNG as future most-traded fuel
Demand for natural gas will grow fastest of all hydrocarbon fuels over the period extending to 2035, according to BP. It will increase by 1.9% a year and be led by demand from Asia, oil major BP said in a press release issued February 19 to announce completion of its latest global fuel forecast report denominated Outlook.
Half the increased demand will be met by rising conventional gas production, primarily in Russia and the Middle East, and half from shale gas, the report said.
By 2035, North America, which currently accounts for almost all global shale gas supply, will still produce around three quarters of the total, according to Outlook.
Coal had been the fastest growing of the fossil fuels over the past decade, driven by Chinese demand. However over the next 20 years the Outlook instead sees coal as the slowest growing fossil fuel, growing by 0.8% a year, just marginally slower than oil. Outlook also projects oil demand will only increase by about 0.8% annually until 2035.
As demand for gas grows, there will be increasing trade across regions and by the early 2020s Asia Pacific will overtake Europe as the largest net gas importing region. The overwhelming majority of the increase in traded gas will be met through increasing LNG supplies. Production of LNG will show dramatic growth over the rest of this decade, with supply growing almost 8% a year through the period to 2020. This also means that by 2035 LNG will have overtaken pipelines as the dominant form of traded gas, according to Outlook.
